The international rating agency Fitch Ratings predicts the growth of Russian GDP at the end of 2018 in the amount of 2%, which for the first time in the last seven years will allow to close the state budget with a surplus of more than $ 7.5 billion.
The recent revision of the American agency of its assessment led to an improvement in their previous forecast by 0.2%. Positive changes are due to a good level of resistance to the economy to sanctions and other negative external factors, as well as a minor public debt. This result will allow not only to avoid new loans, but also use surplus to accelerate the country’s development.
However, for the next two years, growth predictions are slightly worse: slowdown to 1.5% in 2019, followed by recovery to 1.9% in 2020.
Despite positive predictions, Fitch Ratings analysts have not forgotten about potential risks. These were assigned sanctions, excessive growth in the lending market and the fall in oil prices below $ 58 per barrel. Although the prerequisites for their occurrence are not yet.
The main growth factors are in four sectors of the economy: agrarian, engineering, OPK and Himprom. At the same time, up to 1% slowed down the pace of reduction of construction, and sanctions, although they had a negative impact on the economy, but it was such a significant one, as expected.
The positive trend can affect trade wars between the United States and China, which